Daily Commentary
4/29/24
Wheat futures are trading mixed this morning with CHI down 13, KC down 2 and MN up 2. Row crops are also mixed with Corn down 3, and Beans up 1. Canola futures are trading up by about 9. Paris wheat futures are down by about 3 Euros.
The U.S. Dollar is lower, Wall Street is higher, Crude is lower, and Gold is lower.
Wheat futures are under pressure from updated weather models putting rain in Russia over the next 10 days. Dry conditions have persisted for most of the month in April and the predicted precipitation is not expected to completely reverse any damage sustained to the Russian crop. U.S. weather was very volatile over the Midwest this last weekend with multiple tornadoes touching down. Rains over Western KS have been scarce, but updated models are putting moisture over major HRW growing areas this next week. Egypt is reporting that the country has purchased an estimated 900,000 mt of domestic wheat since April 13th. The country's strategic wheat reserves have enough grain for 6 months of coverage. Ukraine officials were able to have productive talks with their Polish counterparts that resulted in an agreement between the two nations. The Russian wheat export tax is seen as weakening heading into May.
Local cash markets were able to close out the week on the most highs that were set due to the rally in the futures market. Demand for new crop SWW has picked up a little bit compared to what was seen being purchased for old crop throughout March and most of April. World wheat values have appreciated a little and that also offered support to local cash markets. Exporters will likely be sensitive to what futures are doing this morning for what they are willing to buy wheat at.
Corn futures are under pressure from spillover pressure from the wheat complexes. Planting progress in this afternoon's crop progress report will be looked at closely to see how fast corn is getting in the ground. Pressure from South America's corn harvest continues to overhang the corn complex. Traders are expecting to see a drop in U.S. inspections and sales as Brazil's second corn crop comes on line shortly.
Soybeans were higher overnight on news of strike activity in Argentina as workers protested against the country's newly elected President. Traders are expecting to see as much as a 10% jump in planting progress here in the U.S. in this afternoon's crop progress report.
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MARKETS
MORNING FROM 9:30 - 11:10 A.M.
AFTERNOON FROM 2:30 - 4:30 P.M.
NO AFTERNOON MARKET ON FRIDAY
NON-HARVEST OFFICE HOURS
MON-THURS 7:30 a.m. - 5:00 p.m.
FRI 7:30 a.m. - 11:30 a.m.
CURRENT PROTEIN SCALES
DNS: +.04/-.08 PER 1/4% BASIS 14%
HRW: +.05/-.10 PER 1/2% BASIS 11.5%